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Smart sports betting, and football betting primarily, is in accordance with the skills of the teams involved in contrast to random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is exactly what makes a highly effective sports bettor.
Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. Conversely, sports betting – and also poker – isn’t according to random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. This means that the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.
Although most good online casino gambling agency strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer a highly effective means of betting. Within the long run, the failure of such systems might be more or less inevitable because it is based upon the Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy is the mistaken impression that specific results are “due” determined by previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. One example is the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that it indicates tails is “due” to come up next; whereas, actually, the chances that the next coin toss will result in tails is precisely the exact same regardless of the range of times heads has come up already.
In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most understanding of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor that is hoping that the desired outcome “is due” according to probabilities. There’s no sound mathematical probability that any specific football-team “is due” anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The major point of such runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.
That is not to claim that random chance is just not involved, of-course it’s. Any team could make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. Nevertheless the smart sports bettor knows that the level of skill of the team in question is a lot more more likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This really is what makes a successful sports bettor in the long run. Anybody can get lucky from time to time, but if one learns to make intelligent bets in line with the skills of the teams involved, one will be much more prone to win significant amounts of money over the long run.