Gambling 142753992814798149

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Since time immortal, among the favorite pastimes of sport freaks has been gambling. Gambling is exciting, considering the risk involved, the luck factor and the chance to make a lot of cash in a few of hours. Online gambling is becoming popular with millions of individuals on the other side of the globe, with more visiting betting sites and online casinos popping up over the internet than in the past. One great good thing about having this facility online is remember, which it is accessible from any place which has an active internet connection. This has made gambling a sport in itself, available to millions of new people.

There is a boom in the excellent online soccer betting industry and also the kind of profits many sites are enjoying now is unimaginable. Online casinos are not to be left behind, as there has been a rapid explosion of these also. The truth is, online poker gives gambling, a glamour quotient by roping in celebrities for high profile tournaments. This implies reaching out to a whole new market in itself.

But simply, the most successful story is the rise of sports betting. Fans that have enjoyed betting on games like soccer, football, polo, baseball, hockey and horse racing, can now do so online with the help of these sites. A whole new variety of sports are cropping up to encourage the already soaring popularity of online betting. It may be correct to say that audiences are now enjoying the betting experience without having to be at the field themselves. Welcome to the world of virtual reality.

There are actually innumerable so-called gambling experts prepared to dish out information of their systems to ‘beat the bookie’ or to make a second income from gambling, for a cost of course. I won’t do that. I will simply give you information regarding bookmakers, odds and gambling that you can use (or forget) as you see fit.

The first thing to mention is the fact that the great majority of people who engage in gambling will be net losers over-time. This is the very reason there are a lot of bookmakers making so much money throughout the world.

While bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, as an example if a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they setup markets that incorporate a margin, so they are going to always make a profit over the medium to long term, if not the short-run. That is, as long because they got their sums right.

When setting their odds for a particular event, bookmakers must first assess the probability of that event occurring. To do this they us various statistical models determined by data collated over years, sometime decades, about the sport and team/competitor in question. Remember, if sport was 100% predictable, it might soon lose its appeal, and while the bookies will often be spot on with their assessments of the probability of an event, they’re sometimes way off the mark, simply because a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.

Just look-at any sport and you shall find an occasion when the underdog triumphs against all of the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool within the FA Cup Final of 1988, as an example, or the United States beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two instances of when you might have got handsome odds on the underdog. And could have won a quality wedge.

The big bookmakers spend a lot of time and expense ensuring they possess the right odds that ensure they take into consideration the perceived probability of the event, and then add that extra little bit that gives them the profit margin. So if an event has a probability of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability would be 2/1. That is, two to one against that event occurring.

On the contrary, a bookie who set these odds would, over-time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they might set the odds at, say, 6/4. In this particular way they have built in the margin that guarantees, over-time, they are going to make the most of people betting on this selection. It is the same concept as a casino roulette.

Now how can you spot the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Well, it’s easier said than done, but far from impossible.

One of the ways is to get very good at mathematical modelling and set up a model which takes under consideration as many of the variables that affect the outcome of an event as it can be. The problem with this tactic is that however complex the model, and however all-encompassing it appears, it can never account for the minutiae of variables relating to individual human states of mind. Whether a golfer manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it really is as much down to their concentration as to the weather or day of the week. In addition, the maths can start getting pretty darn complicated.

Alternatively you may find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events which make them the most money, generally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So trying to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be tough. Unless you work with among the clubs, or are married to one of the players or managers, it is very likely the bookmaker setting the odds shall have further information than you.

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