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The goal for sports punters is to earn a profit whilst enjoying our favourite sport. The sad truth is the fact that for nearly all gamblers, this really is an elusive dream. However by developing and carefully following a stratagem anybody can make this dream a reality.
You will discover two things to consider to benefit from sports quality gambling (to Themico):
Bet Selection – Staking Plan – Bet Selection
The very first, Bet Selection, is obvious – we need to back winners at least several of the time. Let’s consider Horse Racing, anecdotally there are many professional punters whom earn an appropriate living from picking horses, though the key word here is professional. Research and analysis of each horse in the 59 racecourses through the UK takes a sizeable amount of time and experience. If you want to be successful then it’s a full time job! For almost all us this means we have to use the advice of experts to do several of the legwork for us.
Horse racing has no end of self-proclaimed “experts” over the internet charging up to Ł100 per 30 days. When selecting a horse racing tipster the most critical factor we need to think about is long-term results.
The net is awash with tipsters who have had one good month but then go on to post a loss for the next six – but you will only see this one month on their own home page! Never follow any tips without first checking the tipster’s full result history. Choose a tipster who publishes all their horse racing tips history, ideally where the final results of the tips are published the next day along with a complete history of all their tips.
Take a look-at a Tipster Proofing site for example Racing-Index who grades the end result for a range of tipsters. Consider which tipster provides you with gave for money and fits with your own betting profile – can you truly place the 100s of tips each month some tipsters require?
Following tipsters alone just isn’t likely to earn us riches – the very best tipsters are locked out for new members or charge such high rates that any profits are lost immediately. The solution is to create our very own system using tips from expert sources combined with our very own research. This really is the strategy successfully employed in greyhound racing by followers of the site. In most things; the greater you put into your system the greater you can get out.
Once we have a betting strategy in place it’s time to look-at a staking plan. The simplest is Fixed or Level Stakes where we simply bet the same amount, for example 2% of our initial betting bank, each time on our selected horse, however we would want to increase our wagers as our betting bank grows. This leads to Percentage Staking where a share of the current betting bank is wagered each time. What this means is once we win our stakes are larger and conversely the stakes shrink in the event the betting bank decreases.
On the other hand, intuitively we know these staking plans to be overly naive once we will be putting the exact same amount on a horse with low odds when compared with a horse with high odds. Once we are looking to maximise our profits we should be putting a bigger stake on a low odds bet as the return will be less.
To discover the optimal staking plan we could take a correspondence course in statistics and dedicate several years into research. Fortunately we reside in age where this research will be at our fingertips. From probability theory we possess the Kelly Strategy where the optimal portion of our betting bank is calculated from the odds of the bet and our very own estimate of the probability of the horse winning.
Using an online Kelly Strategy Calculator just feed within the values to get the portion of the betting bank to put on each horse. Now the Kelly Strategy can give us some scary percentage stakes if we have an initial run of high odds horses so we could adapt it to a Half Kelly Staking Plan where we wager half the percentage advised by the Kelly Strategy. This would end in a slower accumulation of gambling profits but a less hair-raising ride.