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Just How To identify value within your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the top Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and just how they provide a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, good online gambling agency because of the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.
A perfectly “balanced book” where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn’t appear to be much between them but when we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 – 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be “over round”. The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by any person bookmaker as they would in theory make sure to lose on the event, they may be “under round” . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn’t happen. Individual bookmakers don’t offer odds on the possible outcomes that will provide them with a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may vary to the extent that you can locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you may bet on all three possibilities – win, lose and draw – and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you could make a profit of the percentage by that you just can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it’s pretty obvious that the 4 – 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there’s absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so could be the most effective value, but this is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you evaluate the chances of each outcome just isn’t because of this article. It deserves more thorough treatment than may be given here where we are handling bookmakers’ margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it’s necessary to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is a great one to show the way to use percentages.
It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. For this you’ll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly – and possibly now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.