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As nearly all professional bettor will tell you, backing heavy favourites is a sure fire way to the poorhouse. That’s common knowledge, right? Perhaps, but there’s one problem with that sort of thinking: it’s dead wrong.
The received wisdom will be the linesmakers skew their odds on heavy favourites because the public love betting on the best teams. The bookies undoubtedly see a flurry of parlays involving clubs like Chelsea, Barcelona and Juventus every weekend. Surely there’s value in taking the underdog in these situations, isn’t there?
In fact, numerous research has shown that blindly backing long shots is a losing proposition in the long-term. To see why that’s the situation, we have to understand how a bookmaker operates. Since the bookies take most of their action on short-priced favourites, excellent online football it’s often assumed they are exposed to big liabilities if all the hot teams win. Even though this is sometimes the case, and many bookmakers suffer months of huge losses, you will find a few ways a bookie can protect himself.
It is critical to take into account that most heavy favourites are combined in parlays involving at least three teams. A bookmaker only needs one loser to take his customer’s money. Therefore, there’s little need to lower the odds on a “public” team. Many sportsbooks will even inflate the odds of a hot favourite to attract new customers, safe within the knowledge that parlay players won’t hurt their bottom line.
In the event the favourite’s odds are an accurate reflection of it’s true probability of winning, the bookmaker must make adjustments elsewhere. That usually means offering worse odds on the underdog and the draw. Comprehending the concept of theoretical hold can make this clearer.
When creating lines, a sportsbook shall offer odds on each team that provide it a slight edge, ensuring a profit regardless of how the game turns out. This really is called the Theoretical Hold and is expressed as a percentage. It represents the combined quantity of customers’ bets that the bookmaker expects to keep.
It’s called theoretical because in reality a bookmaker rarely has balanced action on all sides. If a bookie takes the bulk of his bets on a heavy favourite, he can offer it at a more generous price and accept a smaller profit margin. Short-priced favourites generally have small margins, but high volumes. Bigger odds mean bigger margins. There is little incentive for a bookie to offer competitive odds on a big underdog if he doesn’t expect much betting interest in that team.